跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案

本书特色

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目前，中国经济增速明显放缓，下行危机不断增大。如何跨越这发展的陷阱？ “新常态”下，如何通过深化改革，推进经济实现中高速增长？本书剖析了中国经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因，解读了经济下行的各种风险，分析了扭转风险所面对的优势，并结合对中国经济增长的历史回顾，对中国经济发展大势做出预判，提出中国实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革方案，阐述了实现经济增长的突破性和基础动能性体制改革、改革体制与盘活存量、开放和拓展增长领域的体制改革、对外经济开放改革等方案性措施，是各级经济政策的设计者、改革方案的制定者以及所有关注中国经济发展读者的必读力作。

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内容简介

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本书剖析了中国经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因, 解读了经济下行的各种风险, 分析了扭转风险所面对的优势, 并结合对中国经济增长的历史回顾, 对中国经济发展大势做出预判, 提出中国实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革方案, 阐述了实现经济增长的突破性和基础动能性体制改革、

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作者简介

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周天勇，经济学博士，教授，中共中央党校国际战略研究所副所长，中共中央党校校委研究室副主任，北京科技大学博士生导师。 社会兼职有：中国城市发展研究会副理事长兼城市研究所所长，国家行政学院、北京科技大学、东北财政大学、中国社会科学院研究生院等教授，国家发改委价格咨询专家。研究领域为社会主义经济理论、宏观经济、经济发展和增长、劳动经济、中小企业、金融风险、城市化、国企改革、农业经济等。在上海三联出版社、经济科学出版社和中共中央党校出版社出版有《劳动与经济增长》、《效率与供给经济学》、《金融风险与资本社会化》、《中国经济命运与前景的深层次思考》、《新发展经济学》、《中国政治体制改革》、《国有企业改革攻坚》、《现代国有资产管理体系模式》、《走出决策的经济误区》、《走出发展的体制障碍》、《中国：经济运行与结构转换》和研究生用《高级发展经济学》等专著和教材。近年来就国家整体负债、公平与效率、政府各部门收费、财政体制、官民供养比、水电开发、中国增长的危机等方面发表的文章，引起了各方面的高度关注。

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目录

1扭转经济增速下行的框架性概述/ 001��1实体经济的休养生息/ 001��1��1降低企业成本必须减税降费/ 001��1��2推进降低成本的配套性体制改革/ 001��2产权改革为重，启动J型增长/ 001��3三方面基础性的体制改革/ 001��4盘活存量要素和资源的体制改革/ 01��4��1盘活城乡间要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 01��4��2盘活国有经济要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 01��4��3盘活创新要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 01��5拓宽增长来源领域的开放性体制改革/ 01��5��1一些被管制领域的体制改革/ 01��5��2拓展新增长领域的体制改革/ 01��5��3放开社会事业领域的体制改革/ 01��6围绕经济中高速增长布局对外经济开放/ 01��6��1减少对外漏损与出口替代战略/ 01��6��2“一带一路”思路与战略的补充与完善/ 02经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因/ 02��1人口收缩老化与经济格局变化/ 02��1��1“人口坑”对经济增长的20年影响定律/ 02��1��2增长乏力：不能市民化的城市化/ 02��1��3经济发展的格局发生了重大的转折/ 02��2企业高成本重创实体经济/ 02��2��1政府银行国企GDP分配比例的上升/ 02��2��2城乡居民和民营实体经济所分配的GDP/ 02��2��3居民消费能力趋弱/ 02��2��4挤压利润和高债务迫使投资增速下行/ 02��2��5经济增长下行的GDP挤压力流程/ 02��3国民经济流量的对外漏损/ 02��3��1服务贸易逆差对经济增长的影响/ 02��3��2企业家资金转移的增长推动力漏损/ 03经济增速下行风险及其扭转的优势/ 03��1未来中国发展面临的一些风险/ 03��1��1经济增速长期下行和低位徘徊/ 03��1��2改革提振速度慢于经济增速下行的恶化/ 03��1��3金融和经济危机可能由高杠杆率引发/ 03��1��4税费供养失衡与温水煮青蛙的可能性/ 03��1��5养老金缺口与民粹化导致经济社会“希腊化”/ 03��2中美印之间未来基于人口的竞争/ 03��2��1中美印人口结构对比/ 03��2��2中美印未来人口数量和经济走势预测/ 03��2��3中美印未来GDP总量和均值预测/ 03��3中国经济增速的优势与潜力/ 3��3��1睿智勤劳储蓄创业的中华民族/ 3��3��2经济增速有坚实的基础/ 3��3��3大国规模经济优势/ 4经济增长的历史回顾与大势预判/ 4��1改革开放以来三次S型经济增长/ 4��1��1改革开启经济起飞的首个S型增长阶段/ 4��1��2改革开放深化推进第二个S型增长阶段/ 4��1��3加入WTO促改革形成第三轮S型增长/ 4��2温故和判断及把握关系/ 4��2��1三次经济增速上行和下行的经验和启示/ 4��2��2五种叠加压力可能造成经济增速长期下行的格局/ 4��2��3诊断和治疗经济增速下行的大体思路/ 5实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革/ 5��1实施综合降低成本的经济政策/ 5��1��1扩张性政策对人口原因性衰退调节的失效/ 5��1��2经济高成本需要供给学派政策调降/ 5��1��3供给经济政策需要凯恩斯工具相配合/ 5��2降成本必须推进的体制改革/ 5��2��1金融体制方面的改革/ 5��2��2运输、能源和土地降成本的体制改革/ 5��2��3降低企业成本与税费供养体制改革/ 6经济增长：突破性和基础动能性体制改革/ 6��1突破性改革启动新一轮J型增长/ 6��2长远期经济增长基础动能性体制改革/ 6��2��1创业就业体制改革/ 6��2��2转变观念和推进生育体制改革/ 7经济增长：改革体制与盘活存量/ 7��1城乡间要素和资源流动的体制改革/ 7��1��1加速市民化的体制改革/ 7��1��2农村土地使用财产权制度的改革/ 7��2国企改革与促进经济增长/ 7��2��1低效率国有经济与改革的紧迫性/ 7��2��2体制成本和集中风险及国有领域选择/ 7��2��3切实推进国有企业的体制改革/ 7��3盘活创新领域要素和资源的改革/ 7��3��1科技创新要素和资源利用的问题/ 7��3��2盘活科技创新存量的体制改革/ 8开放和拓展经济增长领域的体制改革/ 8��1服务业体制改革及领域的开放/ 8��1��1服务业发展存在的体制问题/ 8��1��2服务业体制的分类改革和开放/ 8��2社会事业领域向民间放开/ 8��2��1目前发展民间社会组织的问题/ 8��2��2拓宽社会事业领域的几个重大关系/ 8��2��3发展和壮大民间社会组织层次/ 8��3拓展增长的空间资源环境等新领域/ 8��3��1通用航空领域体制改革和开放/ 8��3��2土地淡水造林生态领域的开放/ 8��3��3将环境保护和治理转变为创造GDP的产业/ 8��3��4推进PPP体制改革吸引民间投资/ 9促进经济增长与对外经济开放/ 9��1国内外形势变化与对外开放的转折/ 9��1��1基于国内经济形势变化的对外开放调整/ 9��1��2国际形势变化与中国开放战略的调整/ 9��2中国经济开放的优势和面临的挑战/ 9��2��1对外经济开放的优势不容置疑/ 9��2��2中国“走出去”面临的风险和自身的不足/ 9��2��3特朗普时代：中国的不确定性、风险和机遇/ 9��3未来对外开放战略的思路和组合/ 9��3��1构建对外经济开放宏微观调节机制/ 9��3��2产业升级与出口替代/ 9��3��3投资、资金和进出口流入与流出平衡/ 9��3��4产能转移、平衡推进和国内关联/ 9��3��5“走出去”的方式和体制的转型/ 9��3��6特朗普时代：中国坚持经济全球化/ 9��3��7国内能源自主与淡水平衡/ 后记/ Chapter 1The Framework Overview of Reversing The Slowdown of Economic Growth/ 001��1Recuperation of the Real Economy/ 001��1��1Tax-cut and Fee Reduction Is Necessary for Lowering Enterprises�{ Cost/ 001��1��2The Supporting Ttructural Rreform of Promoting Cost Reduction/ 001��2Property Reform for Rebooting the J-curve Growth/ 001��3Basic Institutional Reform in Three Dimensions/ 001��4Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Elements and Resources/ 01��4��1Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks between Urban and Rural Regions/ 01��4��2Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of State-owned Economic Elements and Resources/ 01��4��3Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Innovational Elements and Resources/ 01��5Field Opening Institutional Reforms for Broadening the Sources of Growth/ 01��5��1Institutional Reforms for Opening up A Few Restrained Fields/ 01��5��2Institutional Reforms for Broadening New Ares for Growth/ 01��5��3Institutional Reforms for Deregulation in Fields of Social Undertaking/ 01��6Layout of Opening Strategy surrounding Medium High-Speed Growth/ 01��6��1Strategy for Reducing Leakage and Export Substitution/ 01��6��2Thoughts, Complements and Perfections about “the Belt and Road Initiatives”/ 0ContentsChapter 2Three Underlying Reasons of the Slowing Down Economic Growth Rate/ 02��1Population Aging and Changes of Economic Pattern/ 02��1��1Theorem of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Pit over Economic Growth / 02��1��2Sluggish Growth: Urbanization Excluding Citizenization/ 02��1��3Major Transition in Layout of Economic Development/ 02��2High Costs on Enterprises Hit the Real Economy/ 02��2��1Increasing Share of GDP by Government, Banks and State-owned Enterprises/ 02��2��2Share of GDP Goes to Urban & Rural Citizens and Private Real Economy/ 02��2��3Weakening Household Consumption Capacity/ 02��2��4Shrinking Profit and High Debt that Causing Investment Slowdown/ 02��2��5GDP�{s Crowding out Process of Economic Downturn/ 02��3Outward Leakage of National Economic Flow/ 02��3��1Service Trade Deficit Impacting Economic Growth/ 02��3��2Growing Capital Outward Transfer by Entrepreneurs Causing Economic Impetus Leakage/ 0Chapter 3Risks of Economic Slowdown and the Advantages for Reversion/ 03��1Risks for China’s Development in Future/ 03��1��1Long-term Economic Downturn and Fluctuation at Low Level/ 03��1��2Inspiration from Reform Slower than Economic Deterioration/ 03��1��3Financial and Economic Crises Caused by High Leverage/ 03��1��4Imbalance Support of Taxes & Fees and Possibilities of “Boiling Frog” Effect/ 03��1��5Pension Deficit and Populist May Lead to Situation Similar as “Greece�{s Disease”/ 03��2Competitions Samong China, the United States and India Based on Population in Future/ 03��2��1Population Structure Comparison among China, America and India/ 03��2��2Population Predictions and Economic Trends of China, America and India/ 03��2��3Total GDP and Average Amount Prediction of China, America and India/ 03��3Advantages and Potential of China’s Economic Growth/ 03��3��1Wise, Hardworking Chinese Nation with Savings and Entrepreneurship/ 03��3��2Solid Foundation of Economic Growth/ 3��3��3Advantage of Scale Economy for A Great Power/ Chapter 4Review of Economic Growth and Prediction on Its Trends/ 4��1Three Periods of S�瞔urve Economic Growth since the Reform and Opening�瞮p in China/ 4��1��1The First Stage of S�瞔urve Growth Initiated by Reform/ 4��1��2Deepening Reform and Opening�瞮p Which Advanced the Second S�瞔urve Growth/ 4��1��3Entry into WTO Promoteed Both Reform and the Third Stage of S-curve Growth/ 4��2Reviews, Appraises and Relationship Analyses/ 4��2��1Experience and Enlightenment of Three Cycles of Economic Upward and Downward/ 4��2��2Superposition of Five Trends Which May Cause Long-term Economic Downturn/ 4��2��3General Ideas of Diagnoses and Treatment for Economic Downturn/ Chapter 5Cost Reduction Policies and Supporting Reforms for Real Economy/ 5��1To Implement Comprehensive Economic Policies for Cost Reduction/ 5��1��1Ineffective Expansive Policies on Causal Decline of Population/ 5��1��2High Cost Needs to Be Lowered from Supply-side/ 5��1��3Supply-side Policies Embracing Keynesian Policies/ 5��2Several Indispensable Structural Reforms for Promoting Cost Reduction/ 5��2��1Reforms on Financial System/ 5��2��2Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs in Transportation, Energy and Land/ 5��2��3Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs for Enterprises and Taxes & Fees/ Chapter 6Economic Growth: Structural Reforms as Breakthroughs and Basic Momentums/ 6��1Initiating New Round of “J” Shaped Growth by Achieving Breakthroughs in Reform/ 6��2Establishing Basic Momentums for Long-term Growth/ 6��2��1Structural Reform on Entrepreneurship and Employment System/ 6��2��2Idea Changing and Advancing Structural Reform on Birth Control/ Chapter 7Economic Growth: Structural Reforms and Liquidizing Remnant Assets/ 7��1Structural Reforms for Mobility of Factors and Resources Between Urban and Rural Areas/ 7��1��1Speed-up Structural Reforms on Citizenizaition/ 7��1��2Reforms on Land Property of Usage in Rural Areas/ 7��2Reforming State-owned Enterprises and Promoting Economic Growth/ 7��2��1Low Efficiency of State-owned Enterprises and Urgency for Reforms/ 7��2��2Institutional Costs, Risks of Concentration and Choices of State-owned Domains/ 7��2��3Firmly Promote Structural Reforms on State-owned Enterprises/ 7��3Reforms for Liquidizing Factors and Resources in Innovative Domains/ 7��3��1Problems of Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock and Resources/ 7��3��2Structural Reforms on Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock/ Chapter 8Reforms for Opening up and Expanding the Fields of Growth/ 8��1Reforms and Opening of Service Industry/ 8��1��1Institutional Problems about Service Industry Development/ 8��1��2Reforms on Service Industry System and Its Opening/ 8��2Opening Social Undertaking Toward Private Capital/ 8��2��1Problems of Social Associations�{ Development at the Moment/ 8��2��2Broadening the Major Relations of Social Undertaking/ 8��2��3Developing and Expanding Hierarchies of Non-Official Social Undertaking/ 8��3Expanding New Fields: Space, Resources and Environment/ 8��3��1Structural Reform and Opening of General Aviation/ 8��3��2Opening the Fields of Environment Such as Fresh Water and Afforestation/ 8��3��3Turn Environment Protection into Industries Producing GDP/ 8��3��4To Attract Private Investment by Advancing Structural Reforms of PPP / Chapter 9Promoting Economic Growth and Opening�瞮p/ 9��1Changes in the Domestic and International Situation and Transition of China�餾 Opening�瞮p/ 9��1��1Adjustment of Opening-up Based on Domestic Economic Situations/ 9��1��2International Situation and Adjustment of China�{s Opening Strategy/ 9��2Advantages and Challenges for China�{s Economic Opening/ 9��2��1Unquestionable Advantages of Opening-up/ 9��2��2Risks and Shortcomings of China�{s “Going Abroad”/ 9��2��3Trump�{s Age: Uncertainties, Risks and Opportunities/ 9��3Thoughts and Combinations of Opening-up Strategy in Future/ 9��3��1Constructing Macro and Micro Regulatory Mechanism of Opening-up/ 9��3��2Industrial Upgrading and Export Substitution/ 9��3��3Investment, Capital, Balancing the Inflows & Outflows and Stabilizing Economic Growth/ 9��3��4Industrial Capacity Shifting, Balanced Progress and Domestic Interrelations/ 9��3��5Patterns of “Going Abroad” and Institutional Transition/ 9��3��6Trump�{s Age:China�{s Insisting on Economic Globalization/ 9��3��7Domestic Energy Independence and Balanced Fresh Water/ Postscript/

封面

书名:跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案

作者:周天勇著

页数:0

定价:¥68.0

出版社:中国财富出版社

出版日期:2017-03-01

ISBN:9787504764362

PDF电子书大小:71MB 高清扫描完整版